You only need to look as far as this summer’s movies to figure out what could be hot in toys for Christmas:

Woolworths has tipped Dr Who, Spiderman and Transformers to top the Christmas sales charts.

Announcing its top ten forecast, the chain predicts that the hit 80’s robots, Transformers, will be among the big sellers following this summer’s movie release, which has thrust the brand back into the spotlight.

If things were only that simple.

Back in the day, kids were told by toy companies — not necessarily the movies — what would be the hot toys. Remember Cabbage Patch kids? They were a toy before they were a cable television series. Furbies were really popular one Christmas. We even saw them on eBay selling for hundreds.

But things are more complicated for parents and kids today.

Transformers in the 1980s were marketed to boys mostly under the age of 8. Sure, there were video games back then to compete with but they were more appealing to older kids. These days toy companies have to compete with high-powered video games designed for kids of all ages. Recent toy industry reports indicates that children as young as 3 are playing video games 70 per cent more often than 3 year olds just a decade ago.

So Spiderman and Transformers may have a more difficult time of it this Christmas than some think.

The summer movie-going crowd can be fickle. Superman was suppose to revitalize an entire toy franchise — and it never happened because the movie flopped. And this is the more common story of toys built for Christmas madness.

For Christmas 2007, there is really only one sure-fire, no-doubt-about-it, must have toy and it is expensive: the Nintendo Wii. But it has had nearly a year on the market and they have whipped demand to such a frenzy by keeping it in short supply that by Christmas we will see news stories about how hard they are to find and how much they cost.

If you’re worried, get it now.